As the United States gears up for the 2024 presidential election, the world is watching closely. From allies, economic competitors, and emerging powers across the globe, the stakes of U.S leadership extend far beyond America’s borders. As such, nations are analyzing Kamala Harris’ and Donald Trump’s military, economic, and diplomatic positions, preparing for potential shifts in foreign relationships and economies.
As tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated in recent years, Ukrainians are nervous about what the election holds for the future of their country and the aid they are receiving. Both candidates committed to addressing the conflict: Trump vowed to resolve tensions “very quickly” by cutting off aid to force Kyiv to negotiate a truce; Harris pledged firm support for Ukraine and advocates for consistent aid packages. Across the country, Ukrainians appear to largely prefer Harris’ method of support; however, across Ukraine’s south and east, many citizens are growing impatient and see a Trump presidency as the quickest path to peace. Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed some hope that Trump could broker a ceasefire, but largely appears to align himself with Harris. A senior official in Kyiv said, “We are worried about Trump.”
Russian leader Vladmir Putin hasn’t made a clear endorsement. Harris’ hard line stance against Russia may seem unappealing for Putin, and her commitment to sending aid to Ukraine poses a greater problem for Russia’s war efforts. However, Putin also complained that under the Trump presidency, there were “so many restrictions and sanctions against Russia like no other president has ever introduced before him.”
The violent conflict with Hamas-led Palestinian militant groups in Israel also adds urgency to the election. According to a pole by ABC, 54% of Israelis strongly lean towards Trump, who supports national security for their country, while 24% of them support Harris – reflecting the current tensions between Israel and the Biden administration. However, supporters of Israeli parties opposed to current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are split more closely in the election between Harris and Trump. Meanwhile, the election has heightened tensions between Israeli and Palestinian communities, with Israel delaying decisions to move forward on an Egyptian ceasefire proposal until after the U.S. presidential election.
China, a country that has long standing tensions with the US, also views the upcoming election with wariness, especially in terms of their economy and relationships with Taiwan. Trump has already proposed continuing his “trade war” with China, proposing a 60% tariff on imports. Harris also advocated for reducing Western economies’ dependence on China, moves that are likely to have negative impacts on the Chinese economy. For both the United States and China, the election poses a potential turning point for economic competition, with both Trump and Harris pledging to ramp up production of US-made goods to compete with China. Although Chinese President Xi Jinping has expressed no official preference for the outcome of the Nov. 5 election, analysts largely agree that Beijing might slightly favor Harris, due to the unpredictability in Trump policy. Jia Qingguo, political adviser to China, has said, “He’s highly unpredictable, and he can be very emotional. He may take measures that would create huge problems between China and the U.S.” However, no matter who is in the White House, China foresees turbulent times ahead.
Taiwan remains an important aspect of Trump and Harris’ campaigns. Trump has recently signaled that Taiwan would receive less support from the United States; ultimately, he suggests Taiwan should pay for its own defense. Contrastingly, Harris would take a more systemic approach on foreign affairs, emphasizing the necessity to protect the credibility of America’s security commitments. Although Taiwan has historically favored Republicans and their tough-on-China attitude, Harris appears to have seized generally favorable views in light of Taiwanese perceptions that Trump could be “dangerously unpredictable.” Those wary of another Democrat in office argue Trump’s unpredictability can be a strong asset, encouraging countries to favor negotiation over provocation out of fear of miscalculation.
The election also raises questions about the United States’ future involvement in global security. In the days leading up to the election, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) officials said that they are preparing for the United States to take on a smaller role in the coalition, due to the fact that former president Trump has expressed uncertainty in the United States’ continued involvement in the partnership and aid to Ukraine.
In Europe and other American-allied countries, voters generally prefer a Harris presidency, given her promises to be more accommodating and involved in European foreign policy and aid. This stands in stark contrast to Trump’s “America First” policy, which advocates for American isolationism and protectionism – a strategy that entails imposing different tariffs and legislation that distance the country from the European Union. Thus, many Europeans fear another Trump presidency could have a negative impact on their economy. However, other groups of European voters admire Trump’s policies, especially on immigration and social issues
Ultimately, the election will soon set the tone for American policies in an increasingly polarized and volatile global landscape, and the outcome of the race has consequences reaching far past national borders.
